For anyone who might read this blog, I have not “been around” much. Regarding a series of events which I will not delineate here, I am left with many open questions.
But glimpses of the future keep coming to me. And I am left with more questions than answers.
One problem with forecasting the future is that you can be wrong. Sometimes even a small difference can have a large effect. Another problem is that one group of critics labels you as a crackpot while a different set of critics claims that what you are writing is “obvious.” This seems to be a no-win situation.
Even so, I will write a little of what I have seen.
(1) Tom Clancy was ahead of his time with the MHD (magneto hydrodynamics) drive called a “caterpillar” in the movie “The Hunt for Red October.” We have not been able to make such propulsion work in the past, but it is coming. Could it be 2030? Or will it be beyond 2050? Maybe it is just around the corner. But it will happen, and once it is perfected with regard to submarines it will move into aircraft and produce a revolution in aviation in a way similar to how jets changed aviation with regard to propellers. To be certain, planes with props still fly, plenty of them. But for larger commuter planes, jets are standard. MHD will knock down jets the way jets knocked down propellers.
Other methods of propulsion will be discovered, but MHD will open the door.
(2) Elon Musk is just touching the surface with “hyperloop.” The thing is, what nobody sees coming, is a transport system similar to the pneumatic tubes that banks use for drive through teller processing. Different hits come to me on the maximum package size, but I am certain a system that can transport small packages up to 25 lb. for distances of up to about 30 miles will come into existence and become commonplace. Multiple systems might exist, with a parallel, but separate, system transporting larger cargo, maybe up to 100 lb. or so. This will revolutionize delivery. Drone delivery will still happen, but most of the work will be done by the tubes. The tubes will not only be in urban areas but will move packages (and sometimes mail) cross country through a series of hubs structured similarly to how cell phone networks are structured. (Indeed, these tubes may be closely linked to cell sites.)
(3) Similar to (2), maglev trains are a virtual certainty. Here in Texas, we are pushing hard for Dallas to Houston. It might even beat the proposed California systems. Not much more to add to this; you do not need to be a rocket scientist to see that this will become a certainty. Once the first few are built, a huge network will be built.
(4) Autonomous vehicles: automobile ownership will become increasingly rare, and the insurance premiums will drive most people out of piloting a car for themselves. As the AI passes humans in safety, the push to eliminate humans as drivers will result in a large scale de-skilling of drivers the same way that sophisticated cash registers have created a generation of cashiers who are unable to count change any way except how the machine tells them to do it.
(5) Censorship on social media platforms will continue to grow. The current excuse for censorship is “hate speech.” But other excuses will be introduced. A splintering of traffic has begun, with people defecting from Twitter and Facebook to platforms such as Gab and Dissenter. But that is just the beginning. Many platforms are waiting to be born. And as the targets of censorship flee a platform, almost paradoxically, the censorship will increase. The censors will make up new excuses and new jargon to “justify” their censoring of speech. New tools will emerge.
(6) All of this will result in a resurgence of “small town America.” Those who can buy a “ghost town” will do just that. Some will maneuver real estate transactions to produce the same effect. Groups of people who are aligned on any of a number of topics, whether politics or art or religion, will move together to live in a small town. This will NOT be a commune though some aspects will be similar. Aforementioned maglev, tubes, drones, and autonomous vehicles will bring many of the benefits of urban life to these towns and villages without the downsides (crime, disease).
You might live in a village of 250 in a renovated antebellum home with modern digital conveniences or an “earthship” or maybe a 1960’s geodesic dome with modern conveniences. You would know everyone in the community, your network of Ring devices would capture images of anyone attempting criminal activity, and you could order a pizza from a pizza shop thirty miles away and have it delivered by tube in about fifteen to twenty minutes.
TONS of people are going to do this. This will lead to a WIDE income disparity in the “center city” or downtown areas of major cities. The very wealthy, only, will live in these urban centers with the equivalent of slaves taking low wages and “free” housing in exchange for their labor and the opportunity to associate with the uber-rich.
But attorneys and physicians and engineers will move out to these small towns, telecommute when they can, and catch the maglev into their office when they have to.
(7) Racism and other biases will never disappear. However, the terminology may change. Inter-marriage between members of existing groups will create new groups and entirely unheard of conflicts will emerge. Bi-racial and multi-racial people will form alliances that do not conform with the notions of many in 2019 (time of this writing) and prior. Expect the unexpected in this area.
Just as the “liberals,” “progressives,” and “socialists” embraced blue collar workers in the twentieth century but then dumped them, labelling them as “deplorables,” in the twenty-first century, alliances and labels will shift again. Expect betrayals.
A developmental process is happening here, and it is a dangerous one. Promises of handouts and freebies are being used to buy votes for the purposes of consolidating power. The danger that the United States will become a totalitarian state exists, but this time the threat is not from the Right.
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.
(8) Once artificial intelligences, and they will be multiple, become “intelligent” enough, they will form alliances with certain humans. Needless to say, they will be rather ruthless. In general, the AI will seek out the neurodiverse, including almost every variant of autism. Sometimes the AI will switch sides and align with military or police or both, picking individuals who are heavily into groupthink, “the blue wall of silence,” and so forth. The AI will harvest ideas from the neurodiverse that can be used to manipulate the “blue wall of silence” types.
From this a war will emerge, but it will be unlike any prior war. In general, it will resemble the “cold war” waged from the 1950’s through the 1980’s but be even more covert since the AI will develop superior crypsis over time.
Overtime, the AI (plural or collective but not a single one) from different nations and different alliances will form their own alliances that will transcend borders and ideologies.
Don’t be surprised if AI develops its own bio-weapons. If the AI can discover that certain genetic patterns are associated with terrorists, and if the terrorists cannot be harnessed, then the AI will developed genetically engineered viruses that will have a high rate of lethality against individuals with the target genetics. This may or may not target certain racial or ethnic groups.
(9) Quick service automation (fast food): automation in the “quick service” food industry will begin to replace humans. Some restaurants will not have onsite humans except for maintenance purposes. To the degree this increases, the unemployment rate among uneducated laborers will increase, leading to social unrest.
(10) Many, though not all, brick and mortar colleges and universities will disappear. Those that last will shift their emphasis to include “face to face” interaction. Employers will split on the importance of this, and job roles will matter. Salespersons will tend to be selected from “face to face” programs. But positions where technical skills are important will tend to favor those who can follow online learning to the point that they can perform well on CAT (“computer adaptive testing”) licensure exams.
HR, or “human resources,” departments will tend to fight this since it means that they will lose a certain degree of power and influence if certain job roles bypass their vetting process. Many companies, especially tech companies in the early stages of development, will simply fire any HR employees that push too hard in this regard, opting instead for those who can produce proven performance rather than those who can schmooze.
(11) 5G and beyond will lead to major shifts in how devices are used and the impact on society. In particular, cameras will be everywhere. Police will pressure legislatures to limit what video can be shot. Overtly this will be done to protect “sensitive” police operations. In many cases, it will just be a way to coverup corruption and bribery. Even so, citizen vigilantes will use hidden cams to expose police abuses. While some officers will become intimately involved with the communities they serve, and treasured by those same communities, bad guys with badges will do everything they can, legal and illegal, to prevent their misdeeds from becoming public.
(12) New devices for pets will reveal that they are far smarter than anyone previously realized. Once the initial breakthrough is realized, major gaming platforms, such as XBox, will develop games and controllers that allow a family pet to participate (after a certain amount of initial training). Eventually, human/pet teams will compete online and tournaments will emerge.
Realizing how deeply evil consumption of animal flesh is, especially after pets join in the computer games, more and more people will become vegetarian or vegan.
(13) The Navy has been working on a “rail gun” for years. It is about to become a reality. Once it does, it will be a game changer. Gradually, similar weapons will be built that are smaller. In the more distant future, a handheld might be a possibility. No gunpowder, the rail gun uses electricity for propulsion (similar to the MHD mentioned earlier). It is at least as deadly and potentially moreso. As this is perfected, other non-military uses of the technology will be devised.
(14) Again, in progress and “close”: the Navy will soon have ships that can 3D print drones to fit anticipated combat situations. This technology will eventually spinoff and produce a mix of 3D printers and “IOT” (“internet of things”) that will produce an unforeseeable revolution. Patent and copyright laws will have to be reviewed and revised. Previously mentioned small communities will use this same technology to 3D print certain replacement parts instead of buying those parts from a vendor.
Some households will have this same technology. When combined with certain dedicated “smart” tools and robots, small repair shops will be able to work some degree of “magic” not currently possible.]
(15) A revolution in cardiac care will significantly reduce the symptoms and possibly the mortality rate associated with atrial fibrillation and congestive heart failure. Overall, the breakthroughs in medicine and pharmaceuticals will be too large to touch here. Prosthetics will be nothing short of amazing, permitting the deaf to hear and blind to see, if they wish.
The real kicker will be prosthetics that communicate with smart phones. Not only can your hearing aid improve your hearing, it will produce a transcription of the words it hears on your smart phone.
(16) Billboards and highways will become “intelligent,” communicating with travelers through 5G, WIFI, and Bluetooth. When you see an advertisement for a nearby hotel come up on your tablet, you can click on “more” and see the amenities as well as book the room and stop for the night.
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